2025 Perspectives: Optimism through the obstacles

The 2024 playbook centered on U.S. exceptionalism, decelerating global inflation, and central bank pivots amidst political uncertainties. As we move into 2025, the U.S. economy is set to remain a beacon of strength, upheld by strong consumers and corporate balance sheets. However, challenges exist with European and Chinese economies struggling to keep pace. Investors must be strategic as they navigate through heightened uncertainties and emerging opportunities across asset classes. Here’s a closer look at key insights from our experts.

Macro

Seema Shah on the macro landscape

Key takeaways

  • U.S. strength continues: Despite political and economic upheaval, U.S. economic growth is set to remain above trend, at least in the first half of 2025, driven by resilient household wealth and strong corporate balance sheets.
  • Persistent challenges: Lower-income households face pressures from high rates and elevated prices, while sectors like construction struggle amidst high borrowing costs.
  • Interest rate path: Labor market resilience complicates the path for interest rate cuts, leading the Federal Reserve to take a cautious approach, likely cutting rates at every other meeting instead of every meeting.
  • Global divergence: European and Chinese economies are expected to continue underperforming, with disinflation in Europe and slow growth in China, partially due to U.S. trade policy uncertainty.
  • Risks to watch: Policymaker errors, particularly with misjudging the neutral rate, could introduce volatility. The new U.S. administration’s policies, especially on trade, add another layer of uncertainty.
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